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Somalia: Growing tensions

28. July 2010

The terrorist attack in Ugandan capital Kampala on July 11 for which Al Shabab has claimed responsibility has caused a lot of discussion. It has rightly been condemned. To kill innocent civilians as a mean of war is always unacceptable. In our we however also have to condemn the killings of the hundreds of civilians by the African Unions Mission in Somalia, AMISOM.

Also on July 11 17 new civilians were killed in Mogadishu according to different news agencies. It happened as retaliation from AMISOM in one of the attacks of the insurgents.

The director of the volunteer ambulance service in Mogadishu, Abdulkadir Haji, said to Washington Post on July 18:

“When one kilogram of mortars are fired by al-Shabab, AMISOM replies with 100 kilograms of artillery. It is America and the West who support them. America and the West are the silent killers in Somalia’s war.”

Victim of a bombardment on July 24 is brought to a hospital by the ambulance service:

It is hard to find an exact figure of how many Somalis there have been killed by AMISOM since it arrived in Mogadishu in 2007. In the different reports it is estimated that among 5000 and 15.000 civilians have been killed by AMISOM. To this must be added the thousands of inhabitants who had to take flight from their more or less destroyed homes.

While the whole world seems eager to condemn Al Shabab’s killings in Kampala nearly no one has condemned the innumerable killings by AMISOM.

Because in the last case the killings are made by “a UN-supported government” and by an African force send to Somalia with the acceptance of UN and therefore called a “peacekeeping force”.

In the same way you heard only very few protest over the brutalities of the Ethiopian army before it was hunted out of Somalia. Because in the last end the American supported Ethiopian attack on Somalia to “liberate” the Somalis from the Islamic Courts Union was also – unanimously! – accepted by the UN security council December 6, 2006.

Disagreements

First of all it was a question how USA would act towards the terrorists attack.

“Analysis of Washington’s statements following the July 11 World Cup bombings in Kampala leads to the conclusion that the United States is determined to persist in its interminable procrastination over what to do about Somalia”, the American analyst Michael Weinstein wrote July 21. And he continued:

“Washington’s inability to form a coherent policy towards Somalia has undermined its interests in the Horn of Africa, allowing a civil war to deepen in Somalia to the point at which Washington’s adversary, the revolutionary Islamist Harakat al-Shabaab Mujahideen (H.S.M.), calculated that it was in its interest to strike directly at Uganda, one of the contributors to the African Union peacekeeping mission in Mogadishu (AMISOM). For Washington, the Kampala bombings were an embarrassment, not the crisis and shock that they were in East Africa. The bombings simply showed more slippage in Somalia; Washington had no intentions of getting decisively involved in Somalia – it faced a public relations problem of how to appear to be playing while remaining on the sidelines conducting its permanent policy review that never seems to end.”

Weinstein quotes different and contradictory statements on how ways Washington intended to act in the new situation. However:

“The most comprehensive statements on Washington’s Somalia policy came on July 14 in a briefing for reporters on “Al Shabab Terrorist Group” conducted by “senior officials” and posted in full by Washington. A close reading of the briefing follows.” Weinstein wrote.

“In the introductory remarks, a senior official… took a nuanced view of H.S.M., saying that it had a “dual persona; ”most members of H.S.M. are nationalist and a minority is transnationalist with ties to Al-Qaeda….

”In responding to the question of what the United States is doing, a senior official cited having listed an H.S.M. commander as a terrorist and having frozen the assets of an H.S.M. financier under Executive Order 13536. More generally, the official said that Washington would “use the tools available to support international efforts to weaken this group [H.S.M.].” In particular, Washington would continue to support AMISOM with training and supplies, and assist internally displaced persons. How to cope with the spillover of H.S.M. would be “something that we are going to work with very closely with regional governments to counter.” To put it simply, Washington was not going to assume a leadership role.”

In the beginning US seemed to be confused of what to do. But later it seems that it will support a hard stance.

More “peacekeepers”

A summit in the African Union taking place in Kampala seems to help stopping the confusion. The Ugandan president Museveni announced that Uganda will send 2000 more “peacekeepers” – while the biggest party in his opposition found it necessary to leave the task of defending Somalia’s government to other African countries.

Associated Press reported from the meeting on July 23 and wrote among others:

“Djibouti and Guinea will both send troops to the Somali capital of Mogadishu, said AU commission president Jean Ping. The peacekeeping mission is authorized to send up to 8,000 soldiers, but Ping said the number may eventually rise to more than 10,000. The AU currently has about 6,000 troops from Uganda and Burundi in Somalia.

”The new deployment announcement comes during a meeting of African Union leaders in Uganda, which suffered twin bombings July 11 during the World Cup final that killed 76 people. Al-Shabab, Somalia’s most feared militant group, claimed responsibility for the attacks and said they were in retaliation for civilian deaths caused by AU troops.

”Ping did not rule out the possibility of a change in mandate that could see the peacekeepers’ current mission — to protect key government buildings — changed to authorize offensive action.

“Guinea is preparing a battalion to be sent to Somalia immediately. Djibouti prepared a battalion six months ago. Guinea’s commanders are in Mogadishu preparing for the arrival of their troops,” Ping said.

”Ping did not specify the number of troops Guinea plans to send. A battalion can consist of between several hundred troops to more than 1,000.

”Human rights groups have accused Guinea’s armed forces of severe abuses, including the massacre of over 150 opposition supporters in 2009 and several gang rapes.

”The weak U.N.-backed Somali government is fighting an Islamist insurgency that is itself riven by divisions. The strongest insurgent group, al-Shabab, has pledged allegiance to Osama bin Laden, and the U.S. State Department says some of its leaders have links to al-Qaida…

”The EU and U.S. are spending millions of dollars to train 2,000 Somali government soldiers at bases in Uganda.”

Uganda is not exactly known to be the most democratic country in Africa. Its troops in Somalia are considered to be mercenaries by many Somalis – paid for by the US and the West. Concerning the Burundian regime its is not democratic either. In the last election the opposition forces in Burundi refused to take part because of suppression. It is hard to see how troops from the even more undemocratic Guinea should help to bolster the falling prestige of AMISOM.

Warnings

The feeling of many Somalis were stressed by the remarks of the director for the ambulance service to Washington post. They mostly blames AMISOM for the many killings of innocent civilians. And they seems to know that the real responsible are the US and the West.

As USA has no intentions to once again send its own troops to Somalia it works through private American security firms like BlackWater and by using African troops as their paid for proxies.
But there is a growing and widespread fear that to further strength AMISOM will simply backlash.

Even the African Union itself is afraid of the consequences:

“Internal African Union reports say AU peacekeepers are indiscriminately shelling residential areas of Somalia’s capital”, Associated Press reported July 21..

“An AU report stamped “Internal Use Only” says that if indiscriminate shelling continues the force will lose the support of Somalis.”

The Somalia minister of Justice has also criticized the bombardments made by AMISOM as well as human rights organizations and clan leaders in Mogadishu have protested against them.

Al Shabab is mobilizing

“The Somali militant group al Shabaab yesterday warned African leaders meeting in Kampala against continuing with their “hostile” policy towards war-ravaged Somalia”, The Citizen wrote July 21:

”A militant leader allied to the group, Sheikh Mohamed Ibrahim Bilal, said those who would ignore the warning would “cry like they did in Kampala”, in reference to the twin bomb attacks that killed over 70 people in the Ugandan capital earlier this month. Al Shabaab swiftly claimed responsibility for the July 11 attacks that targeted people watching the World Cup final on television…

“Al Shabaab and its allies are fiercely opposed to plans to send more peacekeeping troops to Somalia, in a bid to end almost two decades of lawlessness and bloodletting in the Horn of Africa country.

“Uganda tightened security ahead of the AU Summit after Al Shabaab urged people in Mogadishu to participate in a jihad (holy war) against the country’s “enemies”.

“Sheikh Bilal told a news conference in Mogadishu that African leaders meeting in Kampala should not foment chaos by taking a “wrong approach”.

“He added that the AU had worsened the situation by endorsing what he said was Ethiopia’s occupation of Somalia, and accused the continental body of presiding over the “massacre” of innocent Somalis by Ethiopia and later Ugandan and Burundian troops operating under the auspices of the African Union Mission in Somalia (Amisom).

“Amisom peacekeepers are shelling the Somali people day and night,” said Sheikh Bilal adding: “They are acting with the express approval of the African Union.”

“He said AU leaders should draw lessons from the deadly blasts that rocked Kampala a fortnight ago.

“The twin explosions showed that the Somali youth more than capable of avenging for their killing of their brothers and sisters in Mogadishu,” Sheikh Bilal said.

“He warned Guinea, Djibouti and other countries that had pledged to assist the beleaguered transitional government in Mogadishu to think twice before sending troops to Somalia.

“This is an American project, implemented through the AU,” Sheikh Bilal said. “Our reaction will make people in other African capitals cry like those in Kampala.”

“Meanwhile, the top al Shabaab official in southern Mogadishu urged residents of the shattered capital to join the jihad against the government and foreign troops.

“Sheikh Mohamed Abu Abdallah said the group had set up several registration centres, and urged people to contribute their wealth and lives to the holy war against the “puppet government” and Amisom peacekeepers.

“We ask everybody to get ready and participate in the jihad, and strongly warn against any hesitation…this is a war that must be won,” he said.

“Al Shabaab officials in central and southern Somalia have in recent days been calling on the group’s supporters to join in the violent campaign against the transitional government and AU peacekeepers.

“Sheikh Ali Mohamed Hussein, the al Shabaab governor of Banadir region (Mogadishu and surrounding areas), urged residents of the capital to take part in an all-out jihad.”

The military situation

Al Shabab and its allied Hizbul Islam still control most of the southern and central Somalia – including the futile areas around the two rivers, Shabelle and Juba, where the peasants can harvest twice a year. They control the ports and airports in Kismayo – situated in the area where Juba river runs out in the Indian Ocean – and in Merca which is situated where Shabelle runs out in the ocean. Thanks to this they have access to big resources that can help them to finance the war against the government and AMISOM.

In contrast to this favorable situation the government is still locked up in a limited area of Mogadishu where it is totally depended on AMISOM.

The AMISOM troops seems to move as little as possible. Every time the try to move they risk to be attacked.

The growing hate to the bombardments of AMISOM is strengthening the insurgency. The big corruption in the government who are not even able to pay their soldiers any salaries and even not enough to eat works in the same way. So do the many internal fighting among the government troops about the loots from the checkpoints.

The nearly daily fighting in Mogadishu continue. AMISOM has to admit that it still has losses. Also the desertions of government troops continue. July 23 among other New York Times could tell that three soldiers from presidential guards had asked for permission to visit their families. Shortly after they had left the presidential palace they showed up at Al Shabab.

Spreading of the insurgency to the North

Somaliland and Puntland in the north of Somalia have long been accused of working closely together with Ethiopia. Somalis from the Somali part of Ethiopia, Ogaden, who are suspected to belong to the insurgents in Ogaden risk to be given over to the Ethiopian security forces.

In the last period the government of the semi-autonomous Puntland region has sharpened its line towards refugee from the South. Pointing to risk that some of them might support the insurgents it had deported hundreds of the refugees. UN and the leaders of the big Somali clan, Hawiye, which mostly populate the areas in and around Mogadishu have protested but the Puntland government has said that the crackdown will continue.

In what could seem as a response Shabelle wrote 26. July under the headline, Clashes break out in mountains of Bari and Sanag, blast occurs in Bosaso:

“Clashes between armed groups and the forces of Puntland administration has broken out at the mountains of Galgala and Karin villages of Sanag and Bari regions in north Somalia, witnesses told Shabele radio on Monday.

“Source confirmed that the fighting was between the BIS forces of Puntland and other forces led by Mohamed Sa’id Atam, a religious cleric that has relation with Al-shabab in north Somalia.

“Reports say that the fighting between the two sides came as the fighters loyal to the cleric attacked Karin village where there had been forces of Puntland administration, killing 4 people including the soldiers and civilians.

“Other reports say that the fighting between the two sides started at Galgala village of Sanag region in north Somalia, but the casualties were unclear.

“Sources in the warring zones indicate that both sides claimed victory over the fighting pointing out that each side claimed it took over the control of the battle ground; but there is no real source to confirm the news so far..

“We had contacted with the security minister of Puntland administration to know more about the fighting continuing in parts of Puntland, but he declined to comment more on the war.

From the mountings Mohamed Sa’id Atam’s forces can overlook Bosaso – the financial centre of Puntland.

“On the other hand big blast had occurred at the new Bosaso neighborhood of Bosaso town of Bari region and it is unclear what casualties that the explosion caused.”

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