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Ethiopian has unfinished business in Somalia

19. July 2010

The IGAD’s extraordinary meeting that concluded in Addis Ababa and chaired by Ethiopian PM Meles Zenawi has agreed to send 2000 troops from IGAD to bolster the AMISOM forces that are directly fighting with the Somali Islamic movements. Another occupation forces numbering 20000 is also on the table after the UN security gives the green light on secret sessions on the coming days.

Like Iraq before 2003, the US has had in mind to invade and impose its own rule with any prize, because of the unfinished business from the previous administration Bill Clinton and George Bush snr. Similarly the Ethiopians which had been humiliated in Somalia in 2006-2008, so there is now another opportunity through IGAD mirror to finish its unfinished business in Somalia. The Ethiopians was forced to leave Somalia, of course with high prize paid both sides its was estimated that the Ethiopian forces killed over 24,000 Somali civilians and wounding more, as well sending millions to flee from Somalia. The same refugees from Ethiopian invasion still are living in makeshift camps outside Mogadishu.

The Ethiopians casualty was estimated to be 3000-5000 troops lost their lives, though the current regime refused to release their casualty. The financial costs were astronomically high because both countries are the poorest nations on the planet, though the US and European footed most of the Ethiopians war chest, Somalis continued to suffer under the current TFG and in the hands of AMISOM.

Sheikh Sharif who is the current TFG president, was the leading figures of the opposition forces under the ICU, today he is on the different side he is doing the same as his predecessor, Abdullahi Yusuf. Sh Sharif and his Islamic Union Court (ICU) encircled Baidoa town which was the temporary seat of the TFG and was guarded by 3000 Ethiopian forces and it was then the only city that the ICU was missing from their control. Abdullahi Yusuf through the TFG parliament, which at the time led by Sharif Hassan tabled a motion to invite the IGAD forces to Somalia to rescue the TFG from the ICU siege, within hours the Ethiopian tanks was crossing in hundreds from the border to Somalia, the US spy aircrafts was hovering around Mogadishu and Baidoa.

That was then, today the same scenario is being repeated, only Mr Yusuf has gone after Ethiopian dumped him. Today Sh Sharif is the president and the Somali Islamic forces circled him around his presidential place the only root he has is the airport and the port which is guarded by few thousands of AMISOM. Interestingly, the kingmaker Sharif Hassan has been again elected the same so-called “parliamentarian” who are mostly warlords and Ethiopians agents just two weeks ago.

It’s not a coincidence the becoming of Sharif Hassan the speaker of the so-called “TFG parliament”, the reshuffle of the TFG cabinets to include some of the Ethiopians most trusted persons in Somali politics and the convening of the IGAD extra-ordinary meeting to decide again the fate of the Southern Somali people.

Would Ethiopian comeback show something new?

The Ethiopian directly or indirectly involve in every step of the Somali politics even in the clan disputes let alone the lone the TFG and regions of Somaliland and Puntland, the re-election of Meles Zenawi will not mean the business as usual.

Ethiopian is one of the hated enemy in Somalia, not only their long war with Somalis and occupation of Somalia inhabited regions of Western Ethiopia, but also their long support of aiding every warlords, every clan invading another. Ethiopians do not want a Muslim nation that is ruled in Sharia law its backdoor that in future influences the large Ethiopian Muslim populations living in her country in particular the Oromo and Somali regions, it simple as that, they prefer to install any of its own Somali puppets with any prize as the US did in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Somalis sees the Ethiopians as the new crusaders in East Africa, because their strong relationship with US and Israel and the spread of Christian evangelistic movements in the Ethiopian political elite, which produced more violent politicians, like Zenawi, Mesfin and Simon Berket. The US evangelist churches have directly donated to the current ruling party and praised the Ethiopian PM his war against the Muslim Somalia.

The other simmering pot is the renewed conflict of the Nile water, the Egyptian politically supported the Somali people even until the ICU in order to weaken the Ethiopian regime, and the Ethiopians are banishing the Somalis for that. The tit-for-tat between Egypt and Ethiopia of the use of Nile waters can potentially escalate to military confrontation, as the Egyptian said that it will not discount using forces against any nation that tries to divert the Nile waters. Israeli companies are investing four large dam that will eventually allow the Egyptian to get less than 45% of the share of the Nile waters. Similarly, the Ugandan and Kenyan are same boat as Ethiopians, which is why the IGAD is the today’s Ethiopian mirror.

Somalis are paying hefty prize for supporting the Arab and Islamic cause, its struggle has failed to gain any respect from their Muslim and Arab brothers. The current TFG leader has no relation with Arab or Islamic countries and he is normally courted at the Addis Ababa rather in the Arab or Islamic capitals. Similarly the previous TFG leader Abdullahi Yusuf, who has shunned any relationship with Arab world, it’s the way the Ethiopian wants Somalia to be.

The comeback of the Ethiopian forces will definitely increase the muscles of Islamic movements without any doubt, today the opposition forces control large swath of the country, they returned law and order in the areas they control, unlike in the areas controlled by the warlord or the previous TFG where the crimes was flourish. Today ten of the regions the Islamist control have zero crime compare to the 2 km controlled by the TFG where daily killing, rape, and extortion occurs. So why would someone who has today peace and tranquillity from fear of clan or warlord let militiaman invasions or roadblocks would want to welcome the Ethiopian mercenaries?

IGAD’s forces are already serving under the murderous AMISOM helmet, Ugandan forces is the largest contingent followed by Djibouti both are IGAD members. The only one who is left out, is Ethiopia, others fighting for their survival. Sudan’s president struggling his image internationally and ICC has issued arrest warrant because of killing thousands of his fellow Darfurians Muslims, so he is not capable of send any troops out to any country. He also has too many domestic problems. On the upcoming AU summit in Uganda, he was told that he will be handed over to ICC, his relation with Musaveni’s of Uganda is the lowest point. The other two Eritrea is no longer in IGAD and Kenya has outspoken member of parliament and large Somalis living in her country and who heavily invested in her country, therefore cannot commit any forces to Somalia.

In 2006 Ethiopian invasion of Southern Somalia was participated about 30000 of its forces, US Special Forces and Marines, CIA, FBI and M16 as well Kenyan security forces. That was then, if they are coming under the AMISOM helmet as they claim to be peacekeeper which is not true from the beginning they will be stationed in around Hiiraan or Bakool or Galgaduud region where there still Ethiopian followers remain. That will alleviate some of pressure facing the Sharif’s TFG in Mogadishu from the Islamic fighters.

Mogadishu stalemate will not change much in the short term at least the next 6-8 months and a scenario the current TFG does not want to hear, as its terms expires in August 2011 in which then the Ethiopian regimes wishes to install one of its confident agents currently serving ministers in the TFG as the next president.

If the Ethiopians introduces large forces then that will give some room to the TFG, however, the TFG cannot stand alone for foreseeable future unless it strengths its military to at least 80,000 a number which Ethiopians does not allow to happen to its back door. Ethiopians secretly legislated that Somalia forces cannot increase from 12000 military and 10000 police, any assistance should come from her in a form of emergency. This is the lesson that every potential TFG leader that works under Ethiopian radar needs to learn, this is why Somalia under the directives of Ethiopia will not move from “Transitional”.

Will the Somalis go on the street and welcome the Ethiopian mercenaries? I doubt so.

Where does the long solution for Somalia and Somalis lies?

Many in the US foreign policy experts on Africa has suggested the Obama administration to talk to Al-Shabab as they enjoying some legitimacy in the ground. Somalia is not the 2km that the TFG control which only about 50000 people live, the bulk of Somalia population are living in areas controlled by Alshabab and Hisbul Islam. If the US talked to Taliban and Iraqi Sahwa (awakening) group of Iraq why not to Al-Shabab. Every negotiation can fail or succeed depending the conditions at the time, will the US need to talk to Al-Shabab, I would recommend so, in order to end the enmity of the Horn Africa and the Somalian people to breath from this unending chaos.

Al-Shabab should also need to re-evaluate their position and give a room for talk, the current stalemate cannot end in militarily alone, they should come with some bright ideas that does not endanger the peace and order they already installed in the regions and cities they control as well their follow Muslims. They must take into account that they cannot shoulder the problems of Ummah around the globe by themselves alone.

As Prof Ilmi Afyare of Qatar University indicates, IGAD is not a solution for Somalia’s ills. Therefore the alienation and confinement must end. IGAD is Ethiopian mirror and that mirror cannot show something different from what we learn from Ethiopians in the last 200 years.

In conclusion, military is no longer a solution for Somalia, it was happening in the past 70 years and nothing has been achieved except despair and destruction of human life.

May Allah Protect my Somali people from the evils of IGAD and their associates.

Allah knows the best.

Ahmed Ibrahim

Ahmedey1@gmail.com

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