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The last development in and around Somalia

16. July 2010

The most spectacular news about the activities from Al Shabab for weeks were the recent attacks in Ugandan capital Kampala which killed 76 civilians. In the first hand the attacks will have the effect to strength the will of the leaders of the international society to fight Al Shabab. But taken the situation in Somalia into consideration it seems very doubtful that such a line will bring any success. Another possibility – at least in the long run – will be to change the whole approach to Somalia.

Burned AMISOM tank caught in a trap in Mogadishu:

In our last article on the approach of the US government to Somalia we quoted American Somalia experts who advised the Obama administration to begin negotiating with Al Shabab and recognize the fact that this militant group controlled most of the Southern Somalia including most parts of Mogadishu.

But Obama seemed to act in a direct opposite direction.

Regional body pledges 2,000 troops to African Somalia force

Under this headline AFP wrote among others on July 5:

“East African heads of state on Monday vowed to urgently deploy 2,000 troops to beef up the African force protecting Somalia’s president from advancing Al-Qaeda-inspired insurgents.

“The Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) made the announcement after an extraordinary summit in Addis Ababa even as rebels closed in on President Sharif Sheikh Ahmed’s palace in Mogadishu….

“A rule preventing neighbouring countries from sending troops theoretically leaves Uganda — which contributes half of the current AMISOM deployment — as the only IGAD member state in a position to send soldiers to Somalia.

“But a senior IGAD official told reporters after the Addis Ababa meeting that there was nothing stopping other member countries from sending troops.

“The troops will come from IGAD member countries, the heads of states have directed that. The budget will be under that of AMISOM,” IGAD executive secretary Mahboub Maalim told reporters.”

It is unthinkable that USA was not asked before IGAD took the drastic step to send soldiers from the neighbouring states – Ethiopia, Kenya and Djibouti – to Somalia. It is hard to believe that EU was not informed either.

A risky decision

Many Somalia experts have warned against the decision claiming that it would strength the insurgents movements further to once again having the possibility to get Ethiopian troops back in Somalia and besides regular troops from Kenya and Djibouti.

But also Somalia’s special envoy to the US, Abukar Arman, found the decision to be a bad idea.

Al Shabab used the opportunity that the decision gave them to the outmost. It arranged meetings for recruiting in most areas under their control.

July 7 AFP described a meeting in Beledweyne and wrote among others July 7:

“The enemies of Allah met in Ethiopia days ago and agreed to fight against the Holy Koran of Allah,” Sheikh Yusuf Said Ugas, Shebab leader for Somalia’s Hiran region, told the crowd.
“Now we are meeting to unite and fight against them. We will fight to death, until we raise the Islamic flag over this country and establish the greater Islamic state,” he said…

“Fresh recruitment has already started across the entire country for a united jihad against the enemy, whose aim is to destroy our religion and integrity.

“I call upon all of you, men and women, to stand up and defend your religion, defend your country against the invading infidels and their apostate allies,” he added.

In another article from AFP a leader of Al Shabab Mohamed Abdi Godane warned the Ugandan and Burundian people:

“My message to the people of Uganda and Burundi is that you will be the targets of retaliation for the massacre of women, children and elderly Somalis in Mogadishu by your forces,” said the leader of the Al-Qaeda-linked militia.

“You will be held responsible for the killings your ignorant leaders and your soldiers are committing in Somalia.”

”Around 40 people, mostly civilians were killed in heavy clashes in the stricken capital last week between the Islamist rebels and the AU-backed government forces.”

It is reasonable to think that the decision of the attack in Uganda was the beginning wave of retaliation – unfortunately hitting other innocent civilians.

Islamists groups will join ranks

The decision seems also to bring and end to the hostilities among Al Shabab and Hizbul Islam according to what Garowe Online among others wrote July 11:

“The leaders of Somalia’s two Islamist movements met for talks aimed at joining forces against the Western-backed government they are fighting to overthrow, officials said Saturday.

”Abdi Mohamud Godane, also known as Abu-Zubeyr, the leader of the Al-Qaeda inspired Shebab group held talks with Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys, the head of the more political Hezb al-Islam militants in Mogadishu Friday.

”The two hardline groups controlling much of the lawless country have been drawn apart in recent months and have repeatedly waged turf wars.

“The two leaders… met yesterday and discussed a broad unity agreement in order to launch a big offensive against the African invaders and their apostate government,” a senior Shebab official told AFP on condition of anonymity.

“Abu-Zubeyr and Sheikh Aweys will reach their final agreement to bring fighters from both groups in the same barracks in the coming days so as to eliminate the enemy of Allah from the country,” the official said.”

Continued political problems for the government

A decisive element of the often declared government plan to start a counteroffensive is the power sharing plan between the government and some parts of Ahlu Sunna Waljame reached many month ago in Addis Ababa.

Ahlu Sunna has some Ethiopian supported militias in the Galgaduud region. It has some weaker Ethiopian supported militias in the Hiiraan region – near the Ethiopian border. And It also have some militias in Mogadishu although it sees unclear if they are new militias or only former militias from the many warlords in Mogadishu who more or less keep their own militias.

In the beginning of July Somali PM reshuffled his cabinet to include new members. He said he had included some ministers from Ahlu Sunna to fulfilled the power sharing plan but the political leadership of Ahlu Sunna has protested and said the new ministers were only close friends of the PM and the president.

The new cabinet has not been approved by the parliament and some 290 members of parliament under leadership of the notorious warlords Yallahow and Quanyara have demanded a vote of confidence.

On the military front there seems to be no bigger changes. The government is stilled corned in a few districts of Mogadishu.

The Ugandan president Museveni had said that Uganda will send 2000 more soldiers to AMISOM and that he expect that the African forces will rise to 20.000 soldiers. According to Ali Osman this is possible because the people in Uganda are held in ignorance. We have borrowed the following article from Ali Osman:

Uganda: Chickens Come Home to Roost

Ugandan’s are awaking to horrendous terrorism acts in their midst and are in loss of words how to describe this senseless murders. As gruesome and evil these acts are, there is a hidden horror that Ugandans are never told. They are not told that their sons are in Mogadishu, one of the most dangerous cities in the world and are there to protect a fragile and hopeless corrupt regime. They are not old, UNISOM was supposed to bring re-enforcement to pacify Mogadishu but the help never came and their sons are left to fend for themselves. As a result of this inadequate force and lack of training in urban combat, they are committing horrendous war crimes in Somalia.

Ugandans are not told their country’s generates more money in defense contracts than it generates from tourism. They are not told that their sons and their military platoons are hired to fight the war on terror. They are not told about the inherent danger of involving foreign wars without an adequate protection at home.

Ugandan military are engaged a war where they cause more civilian deaths in a single day than the three bombings in Kampala combined. Somali civilian deaths resulting from aimless Ugandan military shelling in Mogadishu has surpassed over 5000 deaths. While no one is justifying the terrorist acts carried by international terrorist groups inside Uganda, the Uganda’s military terror does not know any rules of military engagement either. They routinely and habitually target densely populated Mogadishu neighborhoods with artillery causing hundreds of deaths and injuring thousands.

The Ugandan Military’s shelling in Mogadishu has displaced over a million people and are living in a temporary shacks made of sticks and torn-out clothes. The Ugandan shelling and counter insurgent shelling has made the largest Somali market the Bakaraha a ghost town. The president of Uganda Yuweri Museveni plays the tough guy and talks tough as expected, but the reality of terrorism at home carried out against civilians is a sobering reality and it is in a perverted way a case of the chickens coming home to roost.

The families in Uganda would burry their loved ones, funerals would be held, eulogies would be read, and there will be widows, orphans and people disabled forever. Unfortunately, Somalis has been carrying out this grim ritual every day for over two years. They have been doing this without fanfare, without world media pointing out their blight. It was all hidden from the world view and the sad reality is most of it was caused the proud sons of Uganda. The Ugandan platoons in Mogadishu are not trained in unconventional warfare where insurgents often times blend and are indistinguishable from the general population. They have been placed in an untenable position by non other than Yoweri Museveni, the darling of the United States and Europe.

Yoweri Museveni will shows testosterone, but he still has a decision to make and that decision would have ramifications that would reverberate in some capitals. Museveni would have to decide to stay in Mogadishu and earn his money from the United States and guard a hopeless corrupt Somali Transitional Government while at the same time facing terrorism at home and possible war crimes later. The other choice is, Museveni has to tell the Somali Transitional Government, African Union and the United States put your money where your mouth is. That is, demand that the TFG to clean house and restore credible institutions and stop corruption, he will have to tell the African Union to bring the large re-enforcements required by the weak Somali military to secure the cities. He has to tell the United States to commit the significant funds, logistics required to set all the above in motion.

Museveni has to show leadership before Ugandans disillusion with Museveni’s hidden war. Museveni has to change course before Somalis remember Uganda the regime that presided and committed war crimes against innocent civilians. Today, Museveni looks like a man wrestling with a pig and if you wrestle with a big, you get dirty while the pig is enjoying the dirt and the mud.

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