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US seems ready to return to Somalia where it wants to be directly involved in an offensive against the rebels

8. March 2010

Growing signs indicate that a government offensive with direct backing from the US can soon start in Somalia in an attempt to get rid of the insurgents in Mogadishu and in some other regions. In the following we will try to describe what is going on.

Shabelle Media Network wrote on March 6:

“US special operations forces could help the Somali government, which is preparing an offensive to dislodge Al-Qaeda militants from the capital Mogadishu, The New York Times reported.

“Citing an unnamed US official in Washington, the newspaper said the offensive could begin in a few weeks.

“What you’re likely to see is air strikes and Special Ops moving in, hitting and getting out,” the official is quoted in the report as saying.

“Over the past several months, American advisers have helped supervise the training of the Somali forces to be deployed in the offensive, the paper said.

“US officials said that this was part of a continuing program to “build the capacity” of the Somali military, and that there has been no increase in military aid for the coming operations, The Times noted.

“Washington has provided covert training to Somali intelligence officers, logistical support to peacekeepers, fuel for the maneuvers, intelligence on insurgent positions and money for bullets and guns, said the Times.

“Washington is also using its clout as the biggest supplier of humanitarian aid to Somalia.

“It has encouraged private aid agencies to move quickly into “newly liberated areas” to help civilians in an effort to make the government more popular, The Times said.

“US military intervention in Somalia in the early 1990s, commanding a major international relief operation ended in disaster when the UN force became drawn into fighting with local warlords.”

On March 7 Shabelle wrote

Somali government says it completed its preparation for the offensive against rebels

“The officials of the transitional government of Somalia have said that they are in its final stage for preparing the big offensive against the Islamist rebels in parts of the country, official said on Sunday.

“Minister of the interior of the TFG Sheik Abdukadir Ali Omar had held a press conference in Mogadishu on Saturday afternoon saying that the government was committed to start its big war that the government had planned to take over whole control of the Somali capital Mogadishu for coming days.

“The minister said that their main aim was to restore the peace and stability of southern Somalia mainly Mogadishu.

“The minister also said that the government had prepared a well trained troops who would take the action and restore the security and the statement comes as Washington said it would take part the fighting and support the troops of the government with warplanes, logistical support and money.”

The role of Ahlu Sunna Waljame

It also seems that money from the US is behind a change in the leadership of the Ethiopian supported mixed military and political alliance of Ahlu Sunna Waljame (ASW) which is meant to play an important role in the offensive.

ASW has some strength in the Galgaduud and Muduq regions to the northeast of Mogadishu. In Muduq the former government police chief – now minister for water and minerals, Abdi Hassan Awale Qeybdid, has been very active in collecting some clan militias behind ASW and it is also present in some few areas father to the south where it more directly can be supported by Ethiopian forces.

But until recently is has shown itself impossible to unite ASW which is a conglomerate of religious Sufi clerics, different clan militias some of which claim to govern the same areas and a meeting place for warlords who have lost their former positions. A power sharing deal recently made in Ethiopia has until now been meat with great opposition, first of all by the chairman of ASW Sheik Omar Mohamed Farah, from the political and religious leaders of ASW.

But on March 6 the Chinese news agency can tell:

“The Somali government and moderate Islamist group of Ahlu Sunna which is fighting with hardline Islamist rebel movement of Al Shabab, on Saturday reiterated their determination to work together in their war against the insurgents.

”In a high level meeting between Ahlu Sunna movement which controls parts of central Somalia and the transitional government, the two sides repeated their plan to unify their forces in their fight with Al Shabab, Sheikh Omar Sheikh Mohamed Farah, Head of Operations for Ahlu Sunna said.

”Sheikh Mohamed added after the meeting held in the presidential palace in Mogadishu that the two sides also agreed that they fully support a recent agreement reached by the two sides at talks in the Ethiopian capital of Addis Ababa.

”The agreement stipulated that Ahlu Sunna group be incorporated into the government in the power-sharing deal which gives several ministerial posts to the Sufi group which managed to drive the radical Al Shabab movement out of a number of central Somalia districts.”

According to the original power sharing deal reached in the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa, ASW should take over the posts as ministers of defence, of finance, foreign relations, of internal affairs and the ministry of constitutional affairs.

If the power sharing plan also includes an enlargement of the already very big Somali parliament with 250 more seats as it happened when Sharif Ahmed was elected to be president is still unknown.

Act four in a bad movie

What US is preparing to play is the fourth act in a sinister movie to break the resistance of the Somali people.

First act in the long movie started when the US-led, UN-sanctioned operation with the encouraging title, Restore Hope, invaded Somalia in December 1992 in order to get rid of Fared Aidid, a militias leader in Somalia.

Although US had success with removing Aidid who was killed in a confrontation with his second commander Osman Ato – who originally was a driver at an American base but later became very rich – the American troops had finally to leave Somalia after a humiliating defeat to the badly armed Somali militias.

The next act in the movie started when US in February 2006 began to support the warlords in Mogadishu in their confrontation with the growing influence of the Islamic Courts Union (ICU). But in stead of being defeated ICU came to power as a result of a popular uprising against US and the hatred warlords.

Soon ICU governed most of Somalia.

Act three started when US in late December 2006 got the backing of the UN Security Council to let the Ethiopian army attack Somalia – with heave support of the US itself.

The combined Ethiopian and US attack on Somalia first had as a result that president Yusuf Abdullahi riding on the back of Ethiopian troops were able to bring his relative well trained and well equipped militias from Puntland to Mogadishu where he soon controlled a main part of Somalia with the help of US and the Ethiopian army.

Few month later the insurgents again grow to new strength using a guerrilla tactic. First the so-called African peacekeepers (AMISOM) were installed in Mogadishu to help the Ethiopian troops to guard the weak government. But as this didn’t stop the resistance movement the US, UN, EU and “the international society” found it necessary to fire president Abdullahi Yusuf and replace him with a former leader of ICU, Sheik Sharif Ahmed. Using the new “Unity Government” as an excuse the defeated Ethiopian army withdraw from Somalia in January 2009.
But as the government still lost momentum and today only with the help of the “peacekeepers” only control a few blocks in Mogadishu – the US seems ready to play the fourths act of the movie.

As far as we can see this fourth act will have some similarities with the first and the third acts – direct US intervention.

Will the offensive succeed?

In the last many no news about confrontations or military movements have been reported expect for Mogadishu where there seem to be very few changes in the situation on the ground.

On March 5 Shabelle reported on “a bitter” and internal struggle between governments troops.

Also in Mogadishu the African “peacekeeper” in AMISOM and the government have in the recent days twice tried to conquer some areas in Mogadishu in the war zones from the insurgents. The first attempt seemed to fail. At a second attempt that happened March 5 the government side seems to have made a few new bases in the war zones. The fighting costs some lives and wounded but a counter offensive by the insurgents seems has until now not to have happened.

On this background it may seems a little curious that Hizbul Islam according to Shabelle on March 7 proclaimed it will make administrations for the whole of Mogadishu (and the local region, Banadir) – even the government controlled areas:

Here is some of what Shabelle wrote:

“Ibrahim Barre Mohamed, the deputy governor of the Hizbul Islam organisation for Banadir region had held press conference in Magadishu today and talked more about the region during the press conference saying that they would spread their management to the districts of Banadir region like Hamarweyne, Hamarjajab, Waberi and Madina pointing out that all the adminstartion will come under Hizbul Islam.

“Asked about the real position they control, he replied that most of the stations in the capital where managed by the Islamic administration of Hizbul Islam.

“it is unclear how simply would the new administrations be implemented by the officials of Hizbul Islam administration as the mentioned districts are still in under the control of the transitional Federal Government of Somalia.”

The Kenyan paper Daily Nation seems not ready to believe in any bigger success for the new war drive either. March 6 Daily Nation wrote:

“Several thousand troops — some said to have been trained in Kenya — have been assembled in preparation for a major assault on Somalia’s al Shabab militia which could start within weeks.”

The new soldiers in Kenya are recruited among the desperate youth in the Somali refuge camps, Before it had happened that as soon the new recruits realized that their task would be to act as mercenaries used against other Somalis they have deserted. Besides no one can trust their loyalty in the movement they realized that the promised pay disappear in corruption when they come to Somalia.

Daily Nation also wrote:

“The Transitional Federal Government is planning the assault on the al Shabab at a time when the militia seems weakened by internal feuds and a number of high-profile defections.

“But analysts warn there is no guarantee the military offensive against the al Shabab will enable the TFG to assert greater control over the strife-torn country, which the United States says has become a haven for dozens of al Qaeda jihadists in recent years.

“The Ethiopians were able to overrun the Islamic Courts Union within a week in 2006,” Rashid Abdi, a Somalia analyst at the International crisis Group, told the Sunday Nation. “But that did not translate into victory for them because the ICU was able to reclaim territorial control very quickly once the Ethiopians pulled out.”

US, EU, AU, Ethiopia and the rest of the invaders (or backers of the invaders) of Somalia seem constantly to forget is the fact that most military experts claim that in order to defeat a guerrilla force you will need to have around 20 times of the strength of the guerrilla movement.

The only sure is that when or if the new offensive starts it wil mean a new wave of suffering for the already hard hit Somali people.

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