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The impending Somali offensive

2. March 2010

“Warring sides in Somalia have been preparing for an escalation of the conflict”, told Sim Tack on March 01 in the Geopolitical and Conflict Report. “The reason for this is a planned offensive by Somali government troops to retake the whole city of Mogadishu and strategic towns across South Somalia”, Tack continues and goes on:

“This offensive comes as thousands of Somali troops return from being trained abroad. It seems however that the Al Shabab is ready to counter the upcoming offensive and that this offensive will not be the end of the Somali civil war.”

In his summary Tack wrote:

“According to reports of multiple sources the Somali Transitional Federal Government is preparing a military offensive with the goal of retaking Mogadishu and other strategic towns in South Somalia. This offensive coincides with the return of Somali troops trained in Kenya, Ethiopia and Djibouti. African Union forces and possibly Ethiopian forces as well will back the government troops up in this offensive. Remaining troops in the Gedo region have already made movements preparing for an offensive. The Al Shabab has moved its troops around in order to cover all possible approaches of the government offensive and is likely to bring the government troops to a halt by the time the new rainy season arrives.

“It has been apparent for a while now that the Somali Transitional Federal Government has been preparing an offensive against the Al Shabab rebels which control most of the country. At first it seemed this offensive would be mainly aimed at routing the Islamist rebels from the capital of Mogadishu, but recent movements by both sides had led to believe that a larger offensive in the likes of the Ethiopian invasion of 2007 would be in the makings. While first only government troops located in Mogadishu, backed by the African Union peacekeepers, seemed to be involved, it now seems that other parts of the country are being involved in the preparation of this offensive. The Ahlu Sunna militia is ready in the Galgaduud region, other government troops are ready in the Gedo region and wile some government troops trained abroad have arrived in Mogadishu by ship, others have been located at the borders with Ethiopia and Kenya.

“During the last few years the Somali government has sent troops abroad to receive training. These troops were trained in Kenya, Ethiopia and by French troops in Djibouti. Together these training programs mount up to thousands of fresh government troops, a huge influx of fighters on the side of the government. The lack of these troops may also clarify the resent inactivity by the Somali military. Now that they are set to return however, it seems that not all of these troops are sent to Mogadishu to expand security from there. Reports mention that troops trained in Ethiopia are located at the border between Ethiopia and Somalia, possibly to push through enemy terrain to take control of certain strategic locations in South Somalia. It is unclear whether the troops trained in Kenya, reportedly numbering about 1500, will return directly to Mogadishu by sea, or whether they may enter Somali territory by land. If the latter is the case it would be most logical that these troops would join remaining Somali government fighters in the Gedo region.

“According to reports the Somali government troops trained in Ethiopia did not arrive alone. Ethiopian troops would supposedly have joined them. Ethiopia invaded Somalia in 2007 and after more than a year of hard fighting against Somali insurgents they withdrew. The troops currently accompanying the Somali trainees may be instructors or trainers that will continue the training process into the Somali government troops’ mission. They may however also be combat troops to bolster the Somali force. Ethiopia has previously been reported to have its military operate within Somalia near its border after its withdrawal in January 2009. It is unlikely however that Ethiopia would be willing to commit as strong a force as they did in 2007 and therefore unlikely that this Ethiopian involvement will topple the balance in favor of the Somali government troops.

“Somali government troops that were already located within Southern Somalia have also been making preparations for the potential offensive. Remaining scattered troops in the Gedo region have reportedly been making military movements in preparation of an expansion of their territory. Gedo remains the only region outside Mogadishu where government troops are still active. They are however too few to pose a threat to nearby Al Shabab and Hizbul Islam fighters to the south, toward Kismayo, and to the east, toward Baidoa. It is unlikely that these troops could force anything unless they are heavily reinforced by trainees coming from Ethiopia or Kenya which both border the Gedo region. Because of this these troops carry no significant meaning in the upcoming offensive, it is more important to take note of which positions trainees coming from bordering countries take within Somalia and in which direction they will plot their advance.

“The Al Shabab, on the other hand, is not ignorant to the government’s preparations for this offensive. Just like the government it has been stockpiling weapons and ammunitions to prepare for this escalation. Upon taking note of the government’s intention the Al Shabab also moved numerous military units from Bay and Bakol regions to the outskirts of Mogadishu where they would have been in position to counter early attempts by the government to break out of their encirclement. When it became clear, however, that troops trained in Ethiopia may be entering the country from north of the Bay and Bakol regions the Al Shabab were quick to withdraw their troops from Mogadishu to retake position around Baidoa and other strategic locations in Bay and Bakol. Military units stationed in Kismayo and Marka were dispatched to take positions in the outskirts of Mogadishu. This could have already been the maneuvre that allows the Al Shabab to halt the government offensive. It is likely that if the trainees from Ethiopia push south, the government troops in Mogadishu, backed by African Union troops, would push southwest to Kismayo. This idea is strengthened by reported movements by African Union forces earlier this year that led to believe they would advance toward Marka. This means that Al Shabab may have already been able to adequately spread its forces to cover all possible approaches of the government offensive. At the same time the government sees its time running out, with only a month left till the end of this dry season the offensive will need to make speed in order to secure important strategic towns before the advance is halted by the arrival of the rainy season in May.

“While the government prepares its military offensive the Al Shabab has not been sitting quietly. The Bay and Bakol command has organized its own offensive, not one aimed at the expansion of territory, but at the hearts and minds of the Somali citizens. While Al Shabab holds the military power in most of South Somalia it suffers from a lack of trust by the people. This popular support will remain a problem to install an Islamic state if Al Shabab ever does succeed to overthrow the government. As part of this the Al Shabab has taken position to protect the indigenous farmers of Somalia and has warned the United Nations World Food Program that it ought to buy its supplies from Somali farmers instead of importing it. This has recently escalated into Al Shabab forces halting WFP shipments on their way to IDP camps in the Afgoye corridor. WFP can not count on protection from African Union forces for these shipments and is unlikely to go against the threats of physical harm against the organization and its employees. The lack of food aid to the Afgoye corridor could result in a disastrous humanitarian situation.

“As sides gear up for the upcoming violence within Somalia there have also been moves from the outside to weaken the Islamist rebellion. The African Union has demanded a no-fly zone above Somalia and a blockade of Somali harbours used by Islamists in order to halt the smuggling of weapons. Two months ago the United Nations Security council also decided to place sanctions on Eritrea which has been accused of delivering weapons to Somali rebel groups. The sanctions include a weapons embargo on Eritrea, a travel ban on Eritrean political officials and military officers as well as freezing financial assets of political officials and military officials. Whether these sanctions will be able to halt the smuggling of weapons through Eritrea remains to be seen. More importantly it shows how Eritrea is now entering the league of rogue states that are opposed by all western nations also involved in supporting the Somali government.

“The upcoming offensive by the Somali government is likely to once again escalate the armed conflict in Somalia when initiated, but it is unlikely to result in a victory of the government over Islamist rebels. Islamist rebels hold a strong position and have been able to identify potential courses of action to be taken by the government as well as take action to prevent these. Due to the short frame of time for the government to complete this offensive and the positions of both sides it is possible that the advance will bog down before different advances connect to each other and are able to sustain each other. Some territory may be won but the balance of power in South Somalia will likely still tip toward the Al Shabab by the time the next rainy season sets in.”

Additional remarks

In our opinion the delay in the proclaimed offensive can mainly be reduced to the fact that the governments side, its western backers – mainly the US – and the Ethiopian regime have waited on results of negotiations with Ahlu Sunna Waljame (ASW) that should guaranty that this organisation of Sufi clerics and Ethiopian supported warlord should be on the side of the government.

All news agencies seem to agree that the government still control only a few streets in Mogadishu where it is depended on the support of the so-called African peacekeepers. Besides there are governments troops protected by the Ethiopians in a few other areas in the Southern parts of Somalia but 80 % of these regions are still in the hands of the Somali insurgents.

To get ASW on board was a first condition for the beginning of the offensive.

Negotiations between the government and ASW under the supervision of US and Ethiopia have been going on for weeks in the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa. On February 20 the Ethiopian ministry for foreign affairs told that a deal was reached.

Originally the negotiators from ASW present in Addis Ababa had demanded that they as a part of a “power” sharing plan should have the rights to elect the Somali prime minister but they had to accept to only point out four important ministers and some posts in the diplomacy. If the power sharing plan also included a further enlargement of the already big Somali parliament with 250 more seats as it was the case when the a part of the Islamic Courts Union joined the government is not known.

But a few days later Independent wrote among others:

“Senior leaders from Somalia’s main Sufi group Ahlu Sunna wal Jamaa on Tuesday denounced a deal struck last week by some of its members with the government during a meeting in Addis Ababa.

“The Ethiopian foreign ministry had issued a statement on Saturday announcing an agreement between the embattled internationally-backed transitional federal government and the Sufi group to combat the country’s Islamist insurgency.

“But some of the Sufi movement’s top figures argued that those who reached the deal in Addis were not representative of the group and not authorised to set policy.

“The so-called agreement reached and discussions that took place in Addis Ababa were misleading and created a rift within Ahlu Sunna followers,” Sheikh Omar Sheikh Mohamed Farah, a top Ahlu Sunna leader, told AFP in Mogadishu.

“He argued that “the Addis deal does the Shebab and other anti-peace groups a favour by promoting some individuals over others and undermining a planned Ahlu Sunna general assembly to be held soon.”

“Abdulkadir Mohamed Somow, another leader, said that one faction with Ahlu Sunna had “hijacked the process” by dealing directly with the federal government in the organisation’s name.”

Since then the rift in the Sufi group has deepened. And it has deepened most in the area where ASW seems strongest – in the Galgaduud region.

If “the Ahlu Sunna militia is ready in the Galgaduud region” remains very much to be seen.

Row among top officials in the government

Other problems for the government are the continuing row among its top officials.

On February 20 Garowe Online wrote that the “senior Somali presidential advisor, Professor Ahmed M. Warfa, on Saturday resigned from his position. In the resignation, he cited personal reasons and working with uncooperative president.

“I advised Sheikh Sharif on the 4.5 clan system that forms the basis of the government, he did nothing about it. I also advised him on the 39 ministers that make up the cabinet and his many other advisors, he ignored,” said the professor.

“Professor Warfa added that President Sheikh Sharif turned down his advise over the handling of regional-based states, saying that pin-point its leaders from Villa Somalia would not help.
“I am not opposed to the rejections of my advises, however, I am opposed to advises he receive behind my back, which counter mine,” he noted, adding that Sheikh Sharif has so many ‘advisors’ who advise him on increasing the number of ministers and lawmakers.”

On February 27 Garowe Online among others wrote:
“New row has emerged between Somali president Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed and parliament speaker Sheikh Aden Mohammed Nur Madobe over speaker’s tenure.

”The two met on Thursday at Villa Somalia but failed to come to a census over the issue, a well informed lawmaker told Garowe Online on condition of anonymity.

”The source further states that the speaker rebuffed president’s plans to replace him, a plan that is supported by many of Sheikh Sharif’s close associates.

”The speaker is said to be adamant to bow to the pressure of stepping down, arguing that his mandate goes hand in hand with the formation of the transition government.

”In retaliation, some lawmakers allied to the speaker have also put Prime Minister Omar Abdirashid Sharmarke on the spot over what they termed his failure to implement pledges he made when appointed to the post.

”The internal wrangles have also spread to the military and police, whose commandants are said to have divided their loyalties across the two leaders.”

The disagreements among the many commanders of the governments security forces show itself in growing series of reports on internal fighting killing many of the forces themselves but mostly civilians. Normally the fighting erupt over values taken from the civilian population.

Growing splits among the insurgents

No, what gives the government a chance for survival is not due to its own quality – which is extremely low.

It is due to a growing split among the two main groups in the armed opposition. The religious motivated Al Shabab group based on a wabarist understanding of Islam – in fact an import product from Saudi-Arabia (like the ideology behind Taliban) and the more national motivated Hizbul Islam group.

The first armed conflict among the two groups erupted in Kismayo in October last year. Kismayo had been conquered a year before of a coalition among the two groups and local clans. Since then claimed Hizbul Islam it was obvious that the control of the thirds largest city in Somalia should remain in the hands of the conquerors.

The part of Hizbul Islam that had conquered Kismayo together with the coalition was the Ras Kambolii Brigade. But when Al Shabab wanted the administration of Kismayo to be put under the Al Shabab administration of the whole Lower Jubba region armed confrontation among Ras Kamboli and Al Shabab broke out and Ras Kamboli had to leave Kismayo. Although the very leader of the Ras Kamboli Brigade later joined Al Shabab it did not remove the growing hostility among the two groups. A serious of mystery assassinations of leading figures of Hizbul Islam and after that some similar assassinations of leading figures of Al Shabab have followed.

Leading members of Hizbul Islam have now declared that Al Shabab is the main enemy of Hizbul Islam that will bereft Somalis of their own religion. On the other hand the chairman of Hizbul Islam the old political figure Sheik Aweys has realised the danger of a split among the insurgents. The growing deadly split seems most to be limited to the Southern regions. In Beledweyne the capital of the Hiiraan region the two groups still seem to work together relative peacefully.

While the two groups are arming against each other in Mogadishu, in Lower Shabelle and in some other regions in the Southern Somalia there has been a remarkable fall in the attacks on the government forces. But heavy fighting broke out in Mogadishu March 2 when the government tried to make military movements.

To follow how these splits develop can be important in the near future. The question will be if the insurgents can keep their pressure on the government in spite of their internal rivalries.

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